Our frigid February is almost over, but it looks like the unusually cold weather that has defined this month may carry over into March. Right now, we’re dealing with yet another invasion of Arctic air under a strong area of high pressure that is planted firmly to our north along the Canadian border. With temperatures barely reaching positive figures to round out this week, we only take solace in the peaceful sunshine this high pressure provides and we can remind ourselves that “you don’t have to shovel sunshine.” Of course, if you’re hoping for a little late winter excitement in the form of snowfall, there may be a little something to get pumped about as well, but that comes next week and will be discussed below.
For now, we’re dealing with a jet stream that is hovering in the Deep South and is responsible for providing the southern part of the country with heavy snow instead of our region, although Wednesday’s clipper system did do a decent job of producing a solid dose of fluffy snow in parts of our local area. This is the pattern we’ve been experiencing most of the winter and one that has allowed dry Arctic air to dominate our weather, keeping temperatures much colder than the seasonal norm. We’re on pace to finish the month in 8th place for the coldest February in Rochester history.
The jet stream is positioned well to our south right now, allowing Arctic air to dominate our region.
The jet stream aloft looks to be undergoing some changes over the next few days, however, allowing for a slight warm up early in March as it moves into a southwest flow pattern. Temperatures may make their way into the 20s for a few days, but things may get a little dicey as large storm systems will be able to develop and run through the heart of the country. The first looks to stay south of us Sunday, spreading fairly light snow across parts of our area. North Iowa looks to see a coating of accumulation while southern Minnesota stands to see very little. A larger system next Monday night and Tuesday looks to move through our local area, potentially bringing heavy snow and strong winds. It may be early to call for blizzard conditions, but this one is certainly showing signs of being a headache maker for us early in the next week.
The jet stream early next week lifts northward, allowing for a slight warm up while storm systems are expected to develop in a large trough in the southwest part of the country.
After another blast of Arctic air in the middle of the upcoming week, it looks like there may be a flattening of the jet stream pattern that may allow for a decent warm up. As it stands now, some 20s and then 30s may show up in our area by next weekend and in the days that follow as we move into the heart of March.
A flattening pattern, or zonal flow, looks to bring a chance for a slight warm up in our weather picture as we move through early March.
Of course, this is just an early look at things so this could change, but it certainly is nice to think that there may be a decent gasp of warmth in our future after this rather frigid February.
